Sharif’s party expected to win Senate majority

As Pakistan moves toward Senate and general elections, political parties with competing ideological inclinations are doing their best to outperform one another. None of these factions can boast a national footprint, but they all have their own geographical areas of influence.
The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) controls the province of Punjab. The PML-N is seeking political space in Punjab only as its leadership is not even visiting other provinces, although it does have some presence on the peripheries of Punjab in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in order to compete with its arch-rival, Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
Nawaz Sharif, who is the head of the ruling party, was ousted from the office of prime minister in the wake of the Panama Papers scandal. Since then, he has been aggressively campaigning against the judiciary and trying to make the public realize that, by ousting a sitting PM, the sanctity of their vote has been tarnished.
Since he returned from exile in 2007, Sharif has been tough on institutions, as could be seen in the elections of 2008, 2013 and now in 2018. His campaign seems to have gained acceptance as the media is projecting that his party will dominate the elections. The Senate elections are due to take place on March 5 and Sharif’s party is expected to win all 11 seats in Punjab.
This would give the PML-N its first Senate majority since 1998, but it would be a simple rather than absolute majority. It may not win any seats in Balochistan as there has been horse-trading there and the party lost its chief minister. The PML-N will also hardly have any Senators from the KP and Sindh provinces, but is likely to take both seats from Islamabad and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
PTI, which is the main opposition party, will have around 14 or 15 Senators in the 104-seat chamber after next month. The majority of its Senators will be from KP, which is its ruling bastion, and it may not take any seats in other provinces. The PTI has failed to carry the image of an opposition party, as it remained engaged in sit-ins to protest against the ruling party, which annoyed the general public as it hampered their daily lives and businesses.

PML-N likely to take all seats up for grabs in Punjab, but PTI and PPP will look to retain their regional strongholds as year of elections gets underway in Pakistan next month.

Qamar Cheema

Khan’s party may not win in the elections as its position is not stable. Although the Supreme Court ousted Sharif in a case where PTI was one of the petitioners, the party could not take advantage of the PM’s removal. It is criticized for not being active in parliament and only having rhetoric on election problems. But the PTI has a strong hold on KP and is likely to increase its dominance there as it has been successful in breaking the nexus of Islamist organizations, which have now reunited under the name Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA).
The PTI does not believe in joining electoral alliances because it thinks all such agreements are corrupt, so it will contest the elections alone in order to establish its individuality. It is the only party that is in direct competition with PML-N in the largest province, Punjab, but it has less presence in Sindh and Balochistan, the two more marginalized provinces of Pakistan. PTI has issues in its organizational hierarchy, as it failed to have intra-party elections and many believe rich politicians are micromanaging the party’s affairs, which has created internal fissures.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan People’s Party calls itself the party of federation and has worked hard on strengthening democracy in the country. It believes in Pakistan’s democratic institutions and will have fresh leadership in the shape of Bilawal Bhutto, who is the son of slain former PM Benazir Bhutto. He is considered a beacon of hope for many, but he is not expected to lead his party to victory in this year’s elections. The PPP’s position in the Senate is not that good, as 70 percent of its Senators are retiring and it may not get a majority in the upper house.
The PPP is considered a party that believes in political reconciliation and alliances, so other peripheral and confessional parties like to join with it. It is not in a position to form the next government, as its credibility and performance are not up to the mark nationally, but in its own province of Sindh it will come again as it does not have genuine competitors there. The PPP lost poorly in the 2013 elections, but it was at least able to have an opposition leader in the National Assembly.
Other confessional and regional parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (F), Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan, the Awami National Party, Pakistan Muslim League (Q), the National Party and others in KP, Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab won’t be able to find much space in the national political landscape. They won’t win many seats in the coming elections, but a few of their representatives will be elected. These will all be relevant for the treasury and opposition benches in case their support is needed for legislation to pass.
Qamar Cheema is a strategic and political analyst. He teaches International Politics in the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies in the National University of Modern Languages Islamabad.
Twitter: @qamarcheema